COE supply from February to April increased by 3.4% to 3,144 per month. First rise after two quarters of decline

Singapore – Supply of Certificates of Entitlement (COE) increased by 3.4% over the period from February to April 2023, the first increase after two quarters of decline.

Overall, an average of 3,144 COEs will be available for bid across five categories each month during this quota, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) said on Friday. This is up from the US monthly average of 3,040 COE. November 2022 to January 2023 period.

As it increases, COE premiums appear to decline.

This is the first increase in COE supply after two consecutive quarters of declining supply after new calculation methods aimed at reducing volatility. Introduced in July 2022. This method was used to calculate the August-October 2022 supply.

Quotas for February-April 2023 will be set using the second revised calculation method announced on Friday.

COE supply is currently based on the average number of vehicles removed from the road in a four quarter or twelve month period. Allocation for the period February-April 2023 is based on deregistrations January-December 2022.

The LTA says this updated calculation method “further reduces the quarterly volatility of COE supply.”

In July 2022, the formula was revised to be based on the average number of unenrollments over a 6-month period, rather than using only the last 3 months. This method of calculation was applied only to his two assigned periods from August 2022 to his October and from November 2022 to his January 2023.

From February to April 2023, 1,010 COEs per month will be available in the categories of vehicles with engines up to 1,600cc and less than 130bhp, and electric vehicles (EVs) with a maximum power output of 110 kW, an increase of 10.4 To do. Percentage from the previous quota period average of 915.

For larger and more powerful cars and EVs, 860 COEs will be available for bid each month, a 5.3% increase over the previous 817.

There is a dwindling supply of open category COEs that can be used to register all types of vehicles other than motorcycles. On average, 259 COEs will be available for bidding each month, down 11% from the previous 291.

Since open COEs are mainly used for registering large vehicles and EVs, this decline will affect the overall supply of COEs for such vehicles. In total, there are 1,119 COEs available for heavy-duty vehicles and EVs. We see this as an increase of just under 1% over the 1,108 COEs available in the previous allocation period.

Supply of COEs for commercial vehicles will be cut the most.

In the new quota period, there will be an average of 86 COEs per month, a decrease of 37.2% from the previous 137.

The main reason for the reduction is probably the popularity of early sale schemes (ETS). With ETS, when commercial vehicle owners switch from older, polluting vehicles to newer vehicles, they do not have to give up their COE or bid on the newer vehicles. Calculated for the period February to April 2023, there were 1,872 commercial vehicles off the road via ETS.

An average of 929 motorcycle COEs are available each month. This is a 5.6% increase from 880.